Thoughts About the Coronavirus

I was just at Walmart in Garden Grove this morning about 10am. Mostly, I just wanted to test the waters and see how things stood after the madness this weekend. Traffic on Chapman and Beach Blvd. was normal (busy) it seemed for this time of day. Parking lot was still pretty full, but not overly so. Walked into the store. There seemed to be fewer associates than normal. The grocery section looked picked over, but there was still some stuff on the shelves. No water or paper goods of course. The processed meats like lunchmeat, hot dogs, and bacon was so empty you’d have thought they’d just installed the display. No eggs that I could see. The fresh meat section was almost empty. On the other hand, there were still some fresh vegetables and fruit, and the gluten free specialty section still seemed pretty well stocked and I was able to pick up some more bagels. And on the upside there were no fights or arguments over anything that I could see. There was only one person in front of me at the self-checkout, but no bags available. Overall, it felt like things were beginning to die down from the other day when there were lines to the checkout to the back of the store at Vons. Walmart gets their shipments around 2pm and, if there’s a second one, around 4pm or 5pm, so most likely they’ll be restocked by tomorrow as long as there’s no problems at the distribution center. I know this because I used to unload trucks for them at their store in Orange years ago.

It’s tough to know sometimes about how to think about this new virus threat that’s going around. Popularly just called, “the coronavirus,” it’s a new and unique strain of a coronavirus, the type of virus usually responsible for the common cold. The proper taxonomic name for the virus is SARS-CoV-2, though governments seem squeamish to actually call it that. The illness itself has been dubbed COVID-19 to distinguish it from these other, apparently less threatening coronaviri (yes, that’s a proper Latin plural for “virus”). The symptoms are fever and dry cough which can develop into pneumonia in a minority of cases. It can be transmitted by those not displaying any symptoms, and someone who has recovered from it can still transmit it for thirty five days after recovery. It apparently doesn’t like heat and won’t survive being exposed to hot, sunny days. Those who are especially susceptible are the elderly, and those with pre-existing medical issues. For the record, as I write this, I am one of those with a relevant pre-existing medical condition. I have had asthma and chronic lung illnesses since I was seven years old. Bronchitis and pneumonia are old if unwelcome friends. My daughter, 74 year old mother, and sister are all also in this group. It could also potentially send my wife into another MS flare should she become infected. So, yes, this is a concern for my family as well.

So far the average fatality rate worldwide that can be measured is hovering around 3.5%. By comparison, deaths from common influenzas hover around .09% of those infected if the sources I’ve been reading are right. What this does mean is that 96.5% of cases on average worldwide aren’t going to be fatal, and another figure I’ve heard from health authority sources is that 80% of those infected will only develop mild, cold like symptoms, with 20% requiring critical medical care. If we were to put those numbers into perspective, worldwide there is a population of about 7.7 billion. If every member of the human race became infected, we’re looking at about 269.5 million fatalities. The current population of the United States is 327.1 million. If every person in the US became infected, we are looking at 11.4 million fatalities.

I remember the SARS scare, as well as the Bird Flu (H1N1), the Swine Flu, Ebola, and others. But the reaction this time worldwide is unlike anything I’ve seen through all of these which were far more lethal. I think the panic which has developed about it is because there, as of yet, seems to be no way to actually contain it, at least not in the US. Tests exist, but not enough for our population size. Offically, there are now something like 4008 cases of this coronavirus in the United States, but in reality we really don’t know how many people are actually infected because people can transmit it without symptoms, and those displaying symptoms are being turned away when they go to seek testing. This is both worrying and encouraging. It’s worrying because it represents a completely broken pandemic response system for the US, but it’s encouraging because it also means that the actual fatality rate is likely lower than is being recognized for the reporting.

The truth is that the panic response is far more worrying than the virus itself. Stock markets are crashing. As was noted at the beginning, stores are being emptied. Businesses, schools, and entertainment venues are shutting down. Society as a whole is grinding to a halt because of a virus which the vast majority of people will recover from with only mild symptoms. At this point, it will not surprise me if the announcement is made that we’re going to start seeing national guard troops patrolling the streets to keep people in their houses.

In all of this, we need to keep some perspective. This is a virus, but it’s not a zombie apocalypse. It has a higher than normal fatality rate, but it’s not the black plague. Probability wise, depending on whether or not you’re in the group of people who are susceptible, even if you get it, you’ll survive. And, to be honest, even if you die from it, especially if you belong to Jesus Christ you are immediately transferred to His presence. It’s not a loss, it’s a win. There is no death, there is only Jesus Christ and resurrection. As I am one of those people who is likely to develop severe symptoms if I contract it, I do not say this lightly or flippantly, but sincerely. This life is worth nothing in comparison with the shedding of this corrupted mortality for incorruption and the full revelation and union with God through Jesus Christ.

Finally, be sensible. Be considerate. Be compassionate to others around you in whatever form that might need to take. But don’t be afraid, one way or the other.