I was just at Walmart in Garden Grove this morning about 10am.
Mostly, I just wanted to test the waters and see how things stood
after the madness this weekend. Traffic on Chapman and Beach Blvd.
was normal (busy) it seemed for this time of day. Parking lot was
still pretty full, but not overly so. Walked into the store. There
seemed to be fewer associates than normal. The grocery section looked
picked over, but there was still some stuff on the shelves. No water
or paper goods of course. The processed meats like lunchmeat, hot
dogs, and bacon was so empty you’d have thought they’d just
installed the display. No eggs that I could see. The fresh meat
section was almost empty. On the other hand, there were still some
fresh vegetables and fruit, and the gluten free specialty section
still seemed pretty well stocked and I was able to pick up some more
bagels. And on the upside there were no fights or arguments over
anything that I could see. There was only one person in front of me
at the self-checkout, but no bags available. Overall, it felt like
things were beginning to die down from the other day when there were
lines to the checkout to the back of the store at Vons. Walmart gets
their shipments around 2pm and, if there’s a second one, around 4pm
or 5pm, so most likely they’ll be restocked by tomorrow as long as
there’s no problems at the distribution center. I know this because
I used to unload trucks for them at their store in Orange years ago.
It’s tough to know
sometimes about how to think about this new virus threat that’s
going around. Popularly just called, “the coronavirus,” it’s a
new and unique strain of a coronavirus, the type of virus usually
responsible for the common cold. The proper taxonomic name for the virus is SARS-CoV-2, though governments seem squeamish to actually call it that. The illness itself has been dubbed
COVID-19 to distinguish it from these other, apparently less
threatening coronaviri (yes, that’s a proper Latin plural for
“virus”). The symptoms are fever and dry cough which can develop
into pneumonia in a minority of cases. It can be transmitted by those
not displaying any symptoms, and someone who has recovered from it
can still transmit it for thirty five days after recovery. It
apparently doesn’t like heat and won’t survive being exposed to
hot, sunny days. Those who are especially susceptible are the
elderly, and those with pre-existing medical issues. For the record,
as I write this, I am one of those with a relevant pre-existing
medical condition. I have had asthma and chronic lung illnesses since
I was seven years old. Bronchitis and pneumonia are old if unwelcome
friends. My daughter, 74 year old mother, and sister are all also in
this group. It could also potentially send my wife into another MS
flare should she become infected. So, yes, this is a concern for my
family as well.
So far the average
fatality rate worldwide that can be measured is hovering around 3.5%.
By comparison, deaths from common influenzas hover around .09% of
those infected if the sources I’ve been reading are right. What
this does mean is that 96.5% of cases on average worldwide aren’t
going to be fatal, and another figure I’ve heard from health
authority sources is that 80% of those infected will only develop
mild, cold like symptoms, with 20% requiring critical medical care.
If we were to put those numbers into perspective, worldwide there is
a population of about 7.7 billion. If every member of the human race
became infected, we’re looking at about 269.5 million fatalities.
The current population of the United States is 327.1 million. If
every person in the US became infected, we are looking at 11.4
million fatalities.
I remember the SARS
scare, as well as the Bird Flu (H1N1), the Swine Flu, Ebola, and
others. But the reaction this time worldwide is unlike anything I’ve
seen through all of these which were far more lethal. I think the
panic which has developed about it is because there, as of yet, seems
to be no way to actually contain it, at least not in the US. Tests
exist, but not enough for our population size. Offically, there are
now something like 4008 cases of this coronavirus in the United
States, but in reality we really don’t know how many people are
actually infected because people can transmit it without symptoms,
and those displaying symptoms are being turned away when they go to
seek testing. This is both worrying and encouraging. It’s worrying
because it represents a completely broken pandemic response system
for the US, but it’s encouraging because it also means that the
actual fatality rate is likely lower than is being recognized for the
reporting.
The truth is that
the panic response is far more worrying than the virus itself. Stock
markets are crashing. As was noted at the beginning, stores are being
emptied. Businesses, schools, and entertainment venues are shutting
down. Society as a whole is grinding to a halt because of a virus
which the vast majority of people will recover from with only mild
symptoms. At this point, it will not surprise me if the announcement
is made that we’re going to start seeing national guard troops
patrolling the streets to keep people in their houses.
In all of this, we
need to keep some perspective. This is a virus, but it’s not a
zombie apocalypse. It has a higher than normal fatality rate, but
it’s not the black plague. Probability wise, depending on whether
or not you’re in the group of people who are susceptible, even if
you get it, you’ll survive. And, to be honest, even if you die from
it, especially if you belong to Jesus Christ you are immediately
transferred to His presence. It’s not a loss, it’s a win. There
is no death, there is only Jesus Christ and resurrection. As I am one
of those people who is likely to develop severe symptoms if I
contract it, I do not say this lightly or flippantly, but sincerely.
This life is worth nothing in comparison with the shedding of this
corrupted mortality for incorruption and the full revelation and
union with God through Jesus Christ.
Finally, be
sensible. Be considerate. Be compassionate to others around you in
whatever form that might need to take. But don’t be afraid, one way
or the other.